![]() 1 among all Philly teams since 2002, while the Super Bowl-losing 2004 version ranked ninth among Eagles teams over that span. That team had 30 additional explosive plays on offense, defined as runs of at least 12 yards and passes of at least 16, but this 2019 team won it all. The 2018 Chiefs team that lost in the playoffs to New England - KC fans might recall an untimely offsides penalty late in the AFC title game - ranks higher than this version on the overall list (14th, compared to 31st for the 2019 team). XWIN: T-5th | xMOV: 7th | xPF: 3rd | xPA: 16th 1 among the past 20 Super Bowl winners in offensive success rate. This team was terrible on defense during the regular season but much better in the playoffs after star safety Bob Sanders returned from injury. XWIN: T-5th | xMOV: 6th | xPF: 1st | xPA: 18thįour Manning-era Colts teams ranked higher than this one on the overall list since 2002. ![]() That includes the 2020 Buccaneers, who rank 27th overall since 2000 and fifth among Super Bowl winners, despite going 1-4 during the regular season against teams that finished above. While Peyton Manning quarterbacked three of the model’s top four overall teams since 2002, Brady was behind center for three of the top five that won Super Bowls. XWIN: 4th | xMOV: 5th | xPF: 9th | xPA: 4th The 2009 team had it all: prime Brees with a solid defense (12th among teams in 2009). The defense was sometimes so poor, the team had losing records even with that Hall of Fame combination leading the offense. The Saints were almost always very good on offense with Sean Payton and Drew Brees. Among the past 20 Super Bowl winners, the model ranks only the 2002 Buccaneers higher than this Seattle team in adjusted points allowed. The upgraded pass-rush helped Seattle hold all but three opposing offenses to less than 21 points in 19 total games. Seattle added defensive linemen Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril to a defense already featuring emerging young stars in Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner and Kam Chancellor. XWIN: T-1st | xMOV: 2nd | xPF: 12th | xPA: 2nd Though the model ranks this Patriots team fifth out of all 640 teams, the 2004 Colts, led by peak MVP Peyton Manning, actually outranked them very slightly on the list, checking in at No. ![]() 1 among these 20 Super Bowl winners in percentage of pass plays gaining more than 15 yards (20.9 percent). This was the Patriots team that added running back Corey Dillon, got a career-best year from him for rushing yardage and ranked No. No team since these Patriots has repeated as Super Bowl champion. The Patriots tied Philadelphia for the NFL’s best regular-season record from 2001-2004, then defeated those Eagles in the Super Bowl for their second consecutive championship and third in four seasons. XWIN: T-1st | xMOV: 1st | xPF: 5th | xPA: 7th We’ll mention them for context while stacking the past 20 Super Bowl winners, beginning with a tie at the top, and ending with a champ that ranked only 333rd out of those 640 total teams. None of those teams won Super Bowls, however, so they are not listed below. Using the model to rank all 640 teams from 2002 through last season, the 16-0 Patriots from 2007 came out on top, followed by three mid-2000s Indianapolis Colts teams. We then derived a projected margin of victory (xMOV) and a projected win percentage (xWIN) against an average team. From there, the teams’ metrics were leveraged to project points for (xPF) and points against (xPA) when facing an average NFL team. Metrics were then adjusted onto the same scale to “level” the playing field. ![]() To produce a ranking fairly, we compared every team’s metrics to its peers’ metrics in that specific season. While ranking the last 20 Super Bowl winners, we’ll point out which ones ranked especially high or low among all 640 teams from the past 20 seasons. Of course, the best team in a given season doesn’t always win it all, especially in the absence of the seven-game playoff series that other sports use to prevent a single outlier game from determining championship fates. Applying the model backward to evaluate past teams requires era adjustment, and once that was completed, the 2004 Patriots and 2013 Seattle Seahawks stood above all other champs from the previous 20 years. The model has over the past five seasons returned 5 percent profit against the Vegas spread, including about 25 percent since debuting on The Athletic in 2021. But as The Athletic commemorates the 20th anniversary of the NFL’s move to 32 teams spread over eight divisions, Austin Mock’s betting model allows us to fairly rank the past 20 Super Bowl champs, adjusting for era. The game’s evolution complicates efforts to compare teams from the two-back, under-center era to the teams of today.
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